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OUTLOOKS AND RISKS...
The economy is projected to expand by 6.0% in 2024 and 7.0% in 2025, buoyed by stronger regional growth as global supply chains normalize. The oil sector will continue ramping up investments in wells and pipelines, further underpinning growth and future exports. Rising imports of goods and services will keep the current account deficit elevated. Inflation is expected to converge to 5% as the Bank of Uganda maintains its tight monetary policy. The fiscal position is expected to further improve with continuing consolidation efforts. Nonetheless, external risks are tilted toward the downside. Supply chain disruptions around the Red Sea could slow trade as risk premiums rise, while intensifying regional insecurity could delay investments. Domestic risks are related to unexpected increases in public spending on infrastructure amid weak tax revenue performance. The International Monetary Fund’s extended Credit Facility will bolster reserves and set performance targets to guide the authorities.
Uganda is on the cusp of commencing commercial oil production, with projections indicating that this will propel economic growth into double digits. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) forecasts an expansion of 10.8% in the 2025/2026 fiscal year, up from 6.2% previously, driven by oil production activities.
The government has also announced plans to offer new oil and gas exploration licenses in the 2025/2026 fiscal year to attract further investments and enhance economic growth. see more
The Agricultural Sector continues to be the most important sector in Uganda; it employs approximately 72% of the population and contributed about 32% to the GDP. However, Productivity is limited by reliance on natural weather conditions and the still widespread use of traditional methods and equipment.
The Ministry of Agriculture, Animal Industries and Fisheries of Uganda identified the demands of agribusiness development that can increase farmers’ income and promote the export of agricultural products. see more
With Artificial Intelligence increasingly driving the way individuals, companies and governments operate, the 19th United Nations Internet Governance Forum (IGF) in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia provided yet another global stage to ponder on AI and its impact on the world. see more
The East African Community’s Vision 2050 targets leveraging industrialization for structural transformation and improved intra-regional and global trade. Specifically, it targets increasing manufacturing contribution to GDP by 10 percent. see more
Infrastructure is a key priority of the Ugandan Government. During the past few years, infrastructure development has contributed immensely to increased productivity by facilitating efficient connectivity and easing the movement of goods and the provision of services.Infrastructure funding currently comprises about 32.8% of the Government’s total annual expenditure. see more
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